If you’re considering Flag Theory, one thing is probably stopping you: the fear of leaving America’s safety.

I know, we felt it too.

The Comfort of Familiar Danger

I lived in Seattle with my family. My wife was anxious walking to her car at night. We’d mapped out which neighborhoods to avoid. We had conversations about what to do with the children if we heard gunshots.

We accepted a baseline level of urban danger as normal.

This is what Americans do. We normalize the violence around us because it’s ours. That familiarity feels like safety, even when the statistics on violent crime say otherwise.

Then I Moved My Family to Brazil

Specifically, to Florianópolis and Blumenau in Santa Catarina state. Two cities in a U.S. State Department travel advisory zone.

But here’s what actually happened:

My children were happier and more comfortable.
They played outside without us hovering.
We could take them to the park without first having to inspect the surroundings for used needles.
My wife—who’d been on edge for years in Seattle—felt more secure than she had in a long time.

The difference wasn’t subtle.

The Numbers Everyone Ignores

Florianópolis has a homicide rate under 5 per 100,000. Blumenau has a violent crime index of just 38—among the safest cities in Latin America.

São Paulo—the city Americans picture when they think “Brazilian danger”—has a homicide rate of 8.4 per 100,000. Lower than Houston (19) and dramatically lower than Chicago (24).

Rio de Janeiro sits between 18-30 per 100,000. That’s still below St. Louis (45), Baltimore (40), and New Orleans (35).

So when the State Department warns you about Brazil, ask yourself: Why does a homicide rate of 8.4 in São Paulo trigger a federal warning, but 24 in Chicago doesn’t?

Speaking of Warnings…

Here’s my favorite part of the U.S. State Department’s advisory. It literally says:

“Do not travel to these areas due to crime: Anywhere within 100 miles of Brazil’s land border.”

Think about that. They’re telling you to avoid two-thirds of the entire South American continent. Not specific cities. Not high-crime districts. Just… anywhere that’s even near that country.

The cities we lived in fall within that zone. We felt safer there than we ever did in Seattle.

My wife’s response when she read it?

“Brazil should issue a travel advisory for Brazilians considering the U.S.”

The Real Question

It’s not “Is Brazil safe?” It’s “Safe compared to what?”

The safety you think you have at home is largely perception. It’s the comfort of knowing the language, understanding the cultural cues, recognizing which streets to avoid.

That’s not safety. That’s familiarity with danger.

The Choice You’re Actually Making

When you decide not to pursue Flag Theory because you’re “afraid to leave America’s safety,” you’re not choosing safety.

You’re choosing familiar danger over unfamiliar security.

My family moved from Seattle to Santa Catarina, and everything the fear-based narrative told us would happen… didn’t. We weren’t less safe. We were more safe.

The only thing we lost was the illusion that staying in America was the “safe” choice.

If you’re serious about Flag Theory, the first flag you need to plant isn’t in another country. It’s in your own mind—questioning whether the safety you think you have is real, or just a story you’ve been telling yourself to avoid the discomfort of change.