Today, I’m writing this from Brazil, watching the United States enter its second-longest government shutdown in history.

From here, the reactions range from funny to ridiculous. People find it hard to believe that the supposed #1 country in the world can just… stop functioning. But it can. And it has.

What’s Actually Happening

Emergency and essential services are still operating, including the collection of taxes. The country as a whole continues. For most people, life goes on relatively unchanged.

But for the families affected — the ones who need services that are important to them but not prioritized by the government — the impact is significant.

Federal aid and contractors are stopped. Embassy operations abroad and visa processing are delayed or suspended. Document and legal services are unavailable. Federal jobs and benefits are disrupted, including families abroad depending on that assistance.

My American clients are experiencing these delays firsthand. Americans abroad who need urgent passport renewals, embassy support, or federal assistance are stuck. A multitude of families in the US can’t do things they normally can, even though the country has decided those things aren’t a priority right now.

The observation is simple: for most people, it doesn’t affect them that much. But if it does affect someone, it affects them significantly.

The Belief That Governments Don’t Shutdown

Before this, the general consensus was that government shutdowns in general, doesn’t really happen, and even if it does, it’s not on a prolonged basis.

That consensus thinking is crumbling.

That “common knowledge” turns out to be assumption.

Governments are not immune to just stopping, no matter which country you’re in.

My friends from outside the US can’t really believe this is happening in America. Yet if their own government shut down, they could point out 3-5 reasons right away for how it happened — and probably could happen again.

That’s the difference between understanding your own system’s fragility and believing someone else’s system is invincible. But the truth is, no government is invincible. Any government can stop functioning when the conditions align.

This is why it’s important to have multiple governments that can service you — not because you expect all of them to fail, but because you know any single one can.

Be Careful What You Believe Based on Consensus

This is a reminder: be careful of what you believe based on consensus, especially when it’s labeled as “common knowledge.”

A propagandist’s job is to shape or redirect general consensus — to make certain beliefs feel inevitable, permanent, or beyond question.

“Governments don’t shut down.”
“That could never happen here.”
“Things will always work out.”

These beliefs aren’t based on history or logic. They’re based on consensus — on what everyone around you also believes, which makes it feel true.

But consensus isn’t reality. And when consensus breaks, the people who depended on it are the ones caught unprepared.

The Risk of Depending on One Government

This highlights the risk of depending entirely on one government.

Sure, emergency services are still going. Essential functions continue. But what about the services that are important for your family, even if they’re not important for the country?

What happens when the thing you need falls outside the definition of “essential”?

This time it’s just a shutdown. Next time, it could be something else — a policy change, a currency crisis, capital controls, travel restrictions, or something we haven’t even considered yet.

The specifics don’t matter as much as the principle: your family’s plan can’t depend on one government always functioning the way you need it to.

Watching From a Second Hub Changes Perspective

Sometimes seeing things play out from your second hub gives you real perspective on your first hub.

I’m not affected by this shutdown right now. My clients abroad are. My American friends navigating delays are. But from here, I’m watching it unfold without the immediacy of being stuck in it.

That distance — geographic, logistical, emotional — is what optionality provides.

Those with second hubs can get there within the day and watch whatever chaos unfolds from afar. Not because they’re running away, but because they built the infrastructure to operate from multiple locations when one becomes less functional.

What Are You Going to Do About It?

Now that you know your government can actually close, what are you going to do about it?

There’s a low chance that the next event will hit you hard. The probability of some event down the road that will significantly impact you? Really high.

It won’t necessarily be another shutdown. It could be:

• Passport processing delays when you need to travel
• Banking restrictions when you need to move money
• Policy changes that affect your business or investments
• Travel restrictions when you need to relocate
• Currency devaluation that erodes your savings

The specifics are unpredictable. But the pattern is clear: systems break. Governments fail to deliver. Services you depend on become unavailable — sometimes temporarily, sometimes for longer than anyone expected.

Revisit What You Believe to Be True

Revisit what you believe to be true on the basis of consensus, not history or logic.

Ask yourself:

• What do I assume will always be available because “that’s how it’s always been”?
• What services or systems does my family depend on that could be disrupted?
• If my government stopped functioning for 30 days, what would break in my life?
• Do I have alternatives in place, or am I hoping it won’t happen to me?

Then put your contingency plan in place before whatever comes next.

Not because the sky is falling. Not because you need to panic. But because you now have evidence — real, current evidence — that governments can and do shut down, even when consensus says they won’t.

The Bigger Picture

This isn’t just about the US government shutdown.

It’s about the danger of single points of failure — the risk of depending entirely on one system, one jurisdiction, one government to always work the way you need it to.

Your family’s future shouldn’t hinge on consensus beliefs or assumptions about what “can’t happen.”

Build your second hub. Establish your backup residency. Diversify where you bank, where you hold citizenship, where you can operate if your primary system becomes unavailable.

Not because you’re pessimistic — because you’re realistic.

And because watching chaos from afar — rather than being stuck in the middle of it — is a choice you can make long before the next event happens.

The shutdown will end. Services will resume. Life will return to normal — until the next disruption, whatever form it takes.

The question is: will you still be dependent on a single system when that happens, or will you have built the optionality to operate regardless of what any one government does?